Money Vikings Investing - September 8th, 2024 - It's Glowtime & Are Recession Fears Overblown?

Market Report, Finviz/Sector Analysis, Fear and Greed Index, Best Places to Retire, 🔥HotTrades: IT's Glowtime: Bullish selling of Apple Cash Secured Puts.

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Sep 08, 2024

If the past few weeks have taught us anything, it’s that volatility is always around the corner. How can we best structure our portfolios so they are resilient, and we don’t go off selling things just because we hear the word “recession” multiple times a day on CNBC? Below we’ll take a look at a few videos put together by Greg, and some of his overall views of the market. Hint: It’s not all doom and gloom - if you’re saving each pay period, you’re actually dollar cost averaging, and your dividend stocks are adding more shares at fire sale prices!

Greg & Jerry

Lots of red for sure, however gold and agriculture are up 17% and 13% for the year and there are buying opportunities everywhere you look.

These are the Vanguard ETFs that show how various categories of the stock market have been trading since the beginning of the year. VUG (Large Cap Growth) is up 15% for the year. Maybe this won’t continue, but if you step back from day-to-day, you’ll see overall that things aren’t so bad as the media machine like to make them look.

One negative observation for SPY — we did break below the 50 day EMA (green line) on Friday. The next support level seems to be the red line (200 day) at 525.

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Finviz Heat Maps Weekly View

Overall, most market sectors did poorly this week with the exception of Real Estate, Consumer Staples, and some Utilities.

The Fear and Greed Index, VIX

Hard to believe that one week ago we were in Greed (62) and this week we ended up in Fear (39). This is mainly because of the rising vix, and other metrics such as the put/call ratio. Source: CNN Fear and Greed Indicator

An elevated vix shows us the market is fearful, however we’re nowhere near the 40 handle we saw in August. Remember, Vix is mean-reverting which means that after it does it’s thing, it tends go back to where it was quickly. When the vix is elevated, it’s a good time for selling options.

Recession Alert

If you are concerned about the recent volatility in the marketplace, the 2/10 yield curve spread take a look at these videos put together by Greg for an enlightening look at how he’s thinking about his portfolios and the future. Don’t forget to like and subscribe today!

Antagonist Research: OTW #83: Best States to Retire

Jason Milton

from Antagonist Research in OTW #82 shares an excellent infographic showing where the best state to retire is based on Affordability, Well-being, Healthcare access, Weather, and Crime. Feel free to change the weightings to your own personal preferences.

Hot Trades - It’s Glowtime! Bullish Apple Cash Secured Put

At 10am PT on 9/9, Apple has another famous event, and all eyes will be on the iPhone 16 and the new iOS 18 which will provide us all with AI in our pockets (assuming you have the right model iPhone).

Usually Apple Events tend to make the stock go down, but I am bullish through the 15th of the month, so on 8/30 I sold a 215 PUT out to 9/20, collecting $130 in premium. Apple is currently trading for 220. If it is trading below 215 on 9/20 I will purchase 100 shares of Apple for $21,500.

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