Money Vikings Investing Substack - Week of 3/5/2023
In This Substack: Debbie Downer, Market Report, Hot Trades: TSLA Iron Condor Closes for Profit, Collectibles - GPK’s, How to Retire in 40’s & 50’s, Inflation Sucked for Decades - how to destroy it…
Last week I felt like “Debbie Downer” from Saturday Night Live. Warning about an upcoming World War III is no fun. Don’t worry, we will all be fine, but it is still bound to be a bumpy ride. And as Money Vikings, we need to prepare now.
So I must apologize for being “Debbie Downer” Part II this week. Hear me out. I am not trying to depress anyone, I am trying to prepare us and fill us with hope. This is what Money Vikings do!
Inflation is not going away anytime soon. Let’s be honest, we have all been dealing with inflation for decades, and it did not start with buying gas or a jar of pickles after the pandemic. Sure, some inflationary pressures are easing and will continue, but we need to factor inflation into our long term plans.
Anyone who has purchased an education, healthcare, childcare, or housing, has paid a huge price the last couple decades. We will continue to roll out inflation defense systems so we can thrive in this environment.
Best in investing and life,
p.s. Hope to see you in our discord this week!
Weekly Market Report
While Greg is being a “Debbie Downer”, the market did not care, as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all rose 1-2 percentage points this past week. Even EEM (emerging markets) has come back to life this week, up 2.70%. Precious metals such as Gold and Silver seemed to have turned a corner, and the Vix (volatility) has declined.
Indexes and Macro Indicators
I know, I know, everyone is suddenly an armchair technician this week, but it’s hard to ignore the SPY bouncing off that important technical level (200 SMA).
Finviz Heat Map
GOOG, META, CAT, DA, EOG, and BA were the clear leaders this past week. Sector-wise, Basic Materials and Communication Services ruled as Consumer Defensives and Utilities lagged on a relative basis.
The 20 and 50 EMAs have both been breached, The 200 SMA as well as the 20K remain the psychological line in the sand in terms of the next levels of support.
Yield Curves - What’s Wrong With this Picture?
We continue to trade at extreme inverted levels not seen for decades. The 2 year is yielding 4.8%, while the 10 year is yielding 3.98%, and the 30 year is yielding 3.78%. The spread between the 2 and 10 is about .90. CNBC Mortgage rates hit over 7% this week. The Antagonist commented in Over The Weekend that High mortgage rates and low demand could result in a slow Spring for the housing market.
The dollar has definitely been on the rise during this past month of February. If this continues, American consumers will enjoy cheaper imports and better exchange rates when traveling to other countries. On the other hand, US companies that ship goods to foreign countries may be hurt by fewer sales as the price of US goods rise abroad.
Gold & Silver
It is worth noting that Gold (orange) and Silver (grey) both went up this past week.
Finally, we broke through the 200 SMA on EEM.
Lots of complacency in the market or are we ready to rally?
Fear and Greed Index
This week we left greed and moved into neutral territory.
Hot Trade - TSLA Iron Condor (CLOSED FOR PROFIT!)
Called out this TSLA Hot Trade in discord on Valentines Day…
TSLA Earnings Iron Condor. On 2/14 I called out in discord a 5 dollar wide Iron Condor in TSLA out to March 17th at the 170/175/250/255 strikes. I collected a $1.69cr. Several times this week we got close to the 50% of max profit mark of 84$ but my GTC order would not fill. Even with the scary drop on Tesla’s Investor Day this week, TSLA was able to close at my target of an $84 profit, or a 25% Return on Investment Risked.
To close the TSLA Iron Condor For a .85 debit
Bought 1 TSLA 03/17/23 Put 175.00 @ 2.34
Bought 1 TSLA 03/17/23 Call 250.00 @ 0.33
Sold 1 TSLA 03/17/23 Put 170.00 @ 1.57
Sold 1 TSLA 03/17/23 Call 255.00 @ 0.25
Other Trades from This Past Week
RIVN earnings strangle - on 2/28 I sold a 15.5 / 24 strangle for .85cr IVR was 48 at entry. On 3/1 - bought to close long call for .04, and on 3/1 I bought to close the put, leaving a $37 profit
Did a few small bullish verticals in GDX and SLV that were successful
Earnings Next Week
Next week we’ll be watching Dick’s & BJ’s for some activity. Join our discord where we’ll be calling out trade ideas in these stocks and more.
Collectibles - Don’t Forget Those Gross GPK’s
How to Retire or FIRE in 40’s or 50’s
Inflation Sucked for Decades - Here’s How to Destroy It
Let’s stop lying to ourselves, inflation has sucked for decades! We may think that this is a new phenomena of high gas prices and expensive eggs after a pandemic. But do not be fooled, there is more to this story. . .
READ MORE: Inflation Sucked for Decades
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