Money Vikings Investing - Week of 4/30/2023

Market Report, Finviz/Sector Analysis, Yield Curve Flattening, Hot Trades MSFT too Hot to Handle? Money Vikings Podcast. 🔥

• As Small Caps struggled, The Nasdaq and SPY both held nicely above the 20 EMA.

• Long Bonds like the iShares 20+ Year are up about 1% for the week.

• Volatility is extremely low, now in the 15s

• Earnings from META, and Microsoft both helped propel the market higher.

• BTC holding above 29K.

• Communication Services and Technology were the best sectors of the week while Utilities and Healthcare lagged.

• A Fed Meeting on Wednesday could increase rates another 25 basis points. Is this the last time before the “pivot” ?

• Apple reports earnings on Thursday, which could have a large impact on the markets.

For those curious what the blue line at 420 is in the above picture, it’s a short SPY call I sold as part of a $3 dollar wide vertical spread. It’s a hedge should we reverse course next week and check back in with the 20 or 50 EMA. It’s the equivalent of shorting 13 shares of SPY, which helps make my entire portfolio completely neutral. This is done on my trading platform for only $300 in BP.

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Finviz Heat Maps and Sector Analysis

Indexes and Macro Indicators

Yield Curve & Rates - Flattening

Rates seem to be hanging around in their current ranges with the 2 year still at a higher rate than the 30 year or 10 year. The 2/10 spread flattened about 6 basis points. Why do we care? Flattening is a sign of reversion to the norm where longer terms rates yield more than shorter term rates, a small increase in investor confidence and economic outlook.

The VIX

Now in the mid-teens. A moody teenager, or brooding in their room?

Earnings & Economic Events Next Week

We are watching SoFi, CVS, Pfizer, AMD, SBUX, and Apple next week.

HotTrades - MSFT Iron Condor — Too Hot 🔥 to Handle!

Microsoft reported earnings this week, and exceeded expectations. Originally, the strikes were for May 19th - 255/260/295/300. With Microsoft trading at 307, we’ve had to roll up the puts 2 times into an Iron Fly as highlighted on discord , Substack Chat, and 2 hot trade emails that were sent out this week to premium subscribers. We have 21 days left in this is a defined risk Iron Condor meaning we can only lose a finite amount. Since we’ve collected credits of $305 total and our strikes are $5 wide, we can only lose a max of $195 ($500-$305). Let’s see how the next few days go, and if we get a pullback, this could actually work out, or perhaps just break even.