Quick Hits - 7/3/2022
100% Of The Time, Weekly Market Report, Crypto Report, My Stolen ETH, Hot Trades, Collectibles, Health
Happy 4th of July! With the worst first half of the year in many decades behind us, investors continue to manage the uncertainties of the Summer of 2022. Not an easy environment to navigate and no one really knows what is coming next. Are we in a recession already? Will it be minor? Are we engineering a soft landing? Will we dodge a bullet? You can find every single view out there. But one fact we DO know is:
After recessions and market corrections through history, the broader market has recovered 100% of the time.
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Eye on the SPY
Weekly Market Report - SPY lost about -2% this week. On the daily, we are below the 20, 50, and 200 EMAs respectively. 85% of stocks are trading below the daily 200, which is bearish.
Weekly Crypto Report — Trading around 19,000, BTC continues to be in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. With BTC below all the key moving averages on both the daily (pictured) and weekly, we did notice there is a Bollinger Band Squeeze developing which could be an early indicator of a powerful move in either direction. We aren’t making any predictions here, but we are looking pretty oversold with a 28 RSI reading. Something to keep an eye on over the holiday weekend and next week.
Finviz Heatmaps and Sectors
The “fire sale” in large tech, communication services, and materials continue. Energy has been pulled down with all other sectors, but has experienced a small bounce this week, relative to other sectors. Utilities outperformed — are they the new bonds?
Definitely some steepening this week with the 30 year yield losing some ground. That being said, it continues to hold above 3%. In comparison, the 10 year and 2 year rates lost around 30 basis points as bonds (trading inverse to yields) traded off their lows. Speaking of bonds, one of my favorite core positions, AGG gained about 1.22% this week, and still pays a 1.96% dividend.
The VIX (Volatility Index) lost around 8% this week and is off its highs. The Fear & Greed Index can not make up its mind from week to week if we should be Fearful (last week) or Extremely Fearful (this week) 😂
Trading above all 3 moving averages, the dollar index was up around 1% this week and continues to trade up towards its recent high of 105.788.
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Collectibles - Why Keep Sealed Product?
If you are into collectibles, trading card games, fantasy art, classic toys, amazing art, or just like having fun, check out our Money Vikings Collectibles YouTube videos.
My Ethereum was Stolen
Greg experienced a very frustrating week when his ETH was stolen from his Coinbase account. Now the wallet is compromised and unusable. He is in the midst of trying to address the situation through Coinbase Support, but he is getting the feeling he's SOL.
Fortunately he is well diversified in his holdings and does not keep all his eggs in one basket. BUT, it still hurts and is a shock. It is also a stark reminder that this stuff happens and to practice safe and secure procedures such as
1) Turning on two-factor authentication,
2) Never sharing private keys with anyone,
3) Never interact with an unknown person on discord who reaches out to you asking for info
4) Diversify your crypto holdings in many places, but consider keeping it off an exchange in something like a Ledger or Trezor hardware wallet.
Health - Summer Safety
It is a hot one folks, and the future will only be hotter. Let's start practicing some summer safety tips.
Stay Cool. Stay in air-conditioned locations as much as possible.
Stay Hydrated. Drink plenty of fluids, even if you don't feel thirsty.
Stay Protected - use sun screen if outdoors and re-apply frequently
Avoid strenuous or high-energy activities in the heat
Watch for signs of heat stress - confusion, dizziness, fatigue, nausea, headaches
When watching children playing in the water, no texting
*NOT HEALTH OR MEDICAL ADVICE